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The Safest Dividend in the S&P |
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By Carla Pasternak |
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Dozens of companies in the S&P 500 Index cut their
dividends in 2009, equating to $52 billion in lost dividend income.
Added up, last year was the worst year on record for dividend cuts.
But now that a recovery has taken hold, dividend increases are back
on the rise -- payments among S&P 500 companies are expected to
increase
+5.6% this year. To celebrate this good news, I've decided to help
you track down what I believe is the safest dividend in the S&P.
(Full Story Below) |
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The
Safest Dividend in the S&P
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If you're a longtime Dividend Opportunities subscriber, you
might remember an issue way back in September where I hunted
down the safest dividend in the S&P 500.
As you'll remember, I tagged
HCP (NYSE: HCP) and DTE Energy (NYSE: DTE) with the coveted award.
Today, both are still trading with solid yields and both are
near their 52-week highs.
The response to my article was overwhelming, and readers
have wanted even more. So I've decided to provide an update
-- taking the same rigorous metrics I
applied before to discover where the safest dividend in the
S&P is today!
Thankfully, the draconian cuts that we saw in 2008-2009 seem
to be on the way out. Believe it or not, these cuts added up
to $52 billion in lost income -- and that's for just the
cuts from stocks in the S&P 500. To put that figure in perspective,
losing $52 billion would put Warren Buffett into bankruptcy.
Today the news looks much brighter. Howard Silverblatt, an
S&P analyst, expects dividends to increase +5.6% among S&P
companies. Even so, it's clear that dividend safety still
has its place. In the first quarter of 2010, only two
companies cut their payments -- but those cuts were massive.
Valero (NYSE: VLO) cut its payment -67%. Tesoro (NYSE: TSO)
eliminated its dividend completely.
To get us back on the right track and find the safest
dividend in the S&P, I'm going to look at the same metrics used successfully to identify our
past winners: yield, earnings power,
dividend coverage and track record. Let's see what we
uncover.
Safety Criteria #1: Yield
When it comes to yield, it usually takes something above 6%
to garner even a second look from me. So let's start with
all the stocks within the S&P 500 that yield above that
magic 6% number.
As I suspected, it turns out the common stocks in the S&P
500 don't offer much in the way of yields overall, but you
can still find a few individual companies offering
attractive payments. (For the record, I typically broaden
my income search to include closed-end funds,
exchange-traded bonds, master limited partnerships -- and a
bevy of other asset types -- to bring readers the most
attractive yields.)
In total, 13 stocks in the S&P (only 2.6% of the total) yield
6% or more. Of those, the highest-yielding stock is
Frontier Communications (NYSE: FTR), which pays investors
13.4% a year. Unfortunately, so many investors have piled
into HCP and DTE Energy -- my winners last time out -- that
their yields are too low for inclusion in today's issue.
With these stocks in focus, I'll now turn to my next metric
to uncover the safest dividend in the S&P: earnings power.
Safety Criteria #2: Earnings Power
It's not uncommon for "sick" stocks to carry high yields.
Based on a poor outlook, investors will dump the shares,
boosting the yield. To combat this potential pitfall, I'm
looking at the 1-year growth in operating income for each of
the 13 stocks with a yield above 6%.
Operating income is the profit realized from the company's
day-to-day operations, excluding one-time events or special
cases. This metric usually gives a better sense of a
company's growth than earnings per share, which can be
manipulated to show stronger results.
Given the downturn in the economy, I searched for companies
on my high-yield list able to manage any growth in
operating income over the last year, indicating the business
was still able to thrive in one of the worst recessions in
recent memory. After screening for positive 1-year growth in
operating income, I'm left with the four candidates shown
in my table:
|
Company |
OI
Growth |
Yield |
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CenturyTel (NYSE: CTL) |
+70.9% |
8.2% |
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Altria (NYSE: MO) |
+20.6% |
6.8% |
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Progress Energy (NYSE: PGN) |
+5.3% |
6.3% |
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Health Care REIT (NYSE: HCN) |
+13.6% |
6.0% |
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Safety Criteria #3: Dividend Coverage
No measure of dividend safety carries as much weight as the
payout ratio. By comparing the amount of profit
earned against how much is paid in dividends, we can know
whether a company can continue paying its current yield,
even if conditions worsen.
For some of the payout ratios, I looked simply at earnings
over the past year versus dividends paid. However, there are
instances -- such as with REITs -- where depreciation
expenses impact earnings, but are actually a non-cash charge
and don't impact cash available for distributions. For this
reason, I've calculated each
ratio by hand, using whatever metrics needed to come to the
most accurate ratio.
|
Company |
Payout Ratio |
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CenturyTel (NYSE: CTL) |
86% |
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Altria (NYSE: MO) |
75% |
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Progress Energy (NYSE: PGN) |
82% |
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Health Care REIT (NYSE: HCN) |
87% |
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Safety Criteria #4: Proven Track Record
Looking into the track records of each of these companies offers good news for investors -- each one has a
solid history of paying (and raising!) dividends. Depending on what you look for in an
investment, I'd consider any one of the five to be the
safest dividend in the S&P 500.
For example, Altria has offered 5-year annual returns of
+12.2% and throws off a 6.8% yield. However, it is a manufacturer of
cigarettes, which many investors choose to
avoid.
Instead, Health Care REIT has offered annual returns near
the +15% range over the last five years and hasn't had a
dividend cut since they went public. This
REIT invests in healthcare properties, which may be a
more palatable alternative to Altria.
The final two stocks I uncovered, CenturyTel and
Progress Energy,
operate in two fields loved by income investors -- telecoms
and utilities. Both can be counted on to raise payments over
the years, although CenturyTel definitely increases
payments at a faster pace. In fact, the company just upped
its payment +3.5% with the March dividend.
Good Investing!
Carla Pasternak's Dividend Opportunities
P.S.
-- Don't miss a single issue! Add our address,
Research@DividendOpportunities.com,
to your Address Book or Safe List. For instructions,
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here.
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Notes
Companies are increasingly sharing their record cash hoard with
investors, and that trend should accelerate with a new wave of
increased dividends and buybacks this quarter, according to a
report from Deutsche Bank.
Industries most likely to hike payouts are health care,
industrials, consumer discretionary and tech. Financials have
the most excess cash, but they are unlikely to restore or raise
dividends any time soon, given regulatory uncertainty.
-- CNBC
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