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Canadian Trusts: What to Do Now

-- By Carla Pasternak

"Canada, some may be surprised to learn, is America's largest oil supplier." So says NBC newscaster Tom Brokaw in an inspiring six-minute clip that aired in February before the opening of the Olympics in Vancouver, British Columbia.

In all, the United States imports about 2 million barrels per day from its neighbor.

Much of that oil comes from high-yielding energy trusts, like Penn West or Enerplus, which are based right here in my home city of Calgary, Alberta.

The trust model makes sense for Canadian energy producers with mature reserves that generate predictable cash flow. The oil and natural gas reserves offer up plenty of cash to pay investors. Meanwhile, trust rules mean that the business has to pass along the bulk of cash flow to investors. The result is high yields that attract shareholders and boost the share price.

It's a win-win: The trust enjoys high-priced equity capital to finance growth, and investors receive superior income taxable at the reduced dividend rate in the U.S. (Canadian investors also had it good; they could defer taxes by placing trust units in a registered retirement savings account.)

But the party was too good to last. In nine months, these trusts will no longer exist in their current form. Fearing the loss of billions of dollars in tax revenue, the Canadian government announced on October 31st, 2006 that trusts would lose their tax-favored status starting on January 1, 2011. The proposal was known here in Calgary as the "Halloween Massacre," and the Canadian "Oil Patch" lobbied hard to beat it down, but was unsuccessful.

Fearing the end of double-digit yields and tax-advantaged income, investors on both sides of the border dumped their units in droves. Trusts lost over -30% of their value in the weeks following Prime Minister Harper's initial proposal, and the units (shares are known as "units" in trust lingo) were pummeled even more during the recession.

What's Next for Canadian Income Trusts?
The uncertainty of what will happen next has weighed on trusts. Most will convert over to ordinary corporations, but which ones? Which will get taken over? Which will cut their payouts to conserve cash and focus on production growth? Which will keep paying dividends at the same rate?

But now the clouds are starting to clear. According to Canadian investment dealer RBC Dominion, 72 income trusts have been acquired at an average premium of +14% above their trading price. Another 40 have converted to dividend-paying corporations.

A recent survey by investor relations firm BarnesMcInerney and others showed that 84% of the 165 Canadian income trust CEOs polled expect to cut cash distributions when they convert trusts into traditional corporations. But all is not doom and gloom. Yes, some are cutting payments, but others are saying they will maintain the current rate if they have the cash flow.

So in a search for what I call "high-yield keepers," I've conducted my own study. At the conclusion of today's article, I've identified about 20 Canadian income trusts and former trusts with yields of around 6% or more that are committed to keeping distributions at current levels.

But there are plenty of very popular trusts that investors have questions about. That's why I've researched the current plans for some of Canada's most revered income trusts.

To see where some of the major players are positioned for the future, read on...

Growth Mode For Some
One avenue available to trusts it to convert to a corporation and then shun the focus on income and instead look to grow production.

While a number of trusts have done this, surprisingly few have entirely eliminated the dividend as they moved from an income model to an exclusive growth mode. But at least three once high-yielding trusts have opted to do so.

For example, Advantage Oil & Gas (NYSE: AAV) converted to a "growth-oriented corporation" in July 2009 and paid its last monthly distribution of $0.04 per unit in March, down from $0.08 per unit the month before. Going forward, management said it "does not anticipate paying dividends in the immediate future." Instead, it will use the cash flow to reduce debt and focus on developing its natural gas assets.

Bellatrix Exploration (OTC: BLLXF; TSX: BXE) and Enterra Energy Trust (NYSE: ENT) are quitting distributions to focus more on being growth-oriented producers.

More companies, however, are cutting rather than eliminating their dividends, as they simply try to live within their means and provide sustainable dividends going forward.

Gas producer Trilogy Energy (OTC: TETFF; TSX: TET) completed its conversion this February after saying it would cut its monthly dividend -30% to C$0.035 per share for a current yield of around 5%. Media publisher Yellow Pages (OTC: YLWPF; TSX: YLO.UN) said in February it will cut the monthly dividend by -19% to C$0.054 per unit when it converts later this year, providing a still juicy yield of over 10% at today's price.

Numerous other trusts are repeating the same mantra -- they won't stop paying distributions, but future distributions will likely be lower. This includes companies with plans to focus more on growth or simply trying to live within their means:

Innergex Power Income Fund
(OTC: INRGF; TSX: IEF.UN)
A&W Revenue Royalties Trust
(OTC: AWRRF; TSX: AW.UN)
Daylight Resources
(OTC: DAYYF; TSX: DAY.UN)
Canadian Oil Sands
(OTC: COSWF; TSX: COS.UN)
Peyto Energy
(OTC: PEYUF; TSX: PEY.UN)
Zargon Energy
(OTC: ZARFF; TSX: ZAR.UN)
Arc Energy
(OTC: AETUF; TSX: AET.UN)
 

Sitting on the Fence
Some of the more popular trusts with U.S. investors (because they trade on the New York Stock Exchange) are saying they will tell us more in the months ahead.

Penn West (NYSE: PWE) CEO William Andrews said in the latest earnings report he will keep the monthly distribution steady at least for the current quarter, but won't confirm the rate will stay the same post-conversion until first-quarter results come out in May. The distribution outlook is not looking promising, given that in years past the trust was heavily focused just on payments. "As a corporation, Penn West will focus on total shareholder return. This will consist of both growth and income from dividends," Andrews stressed.

Some trusts are saying they have enough tax pools to shelter their cash flow from income taxes for several years after December 31, 2010. These pools are accumulated business losses that can be deducted from income in future years, thereby sheltering cash from future taxes. As such, tax pools can be extremely advantageous, even more so now that trusts have been prohibited by the government from gaining additional tax pools by simply acquiring any company with large business losses.

Even with tax pools, however, management must still decide whether to use the tax-advantaged cash to grow the company or provide big payouts to investors. For example, Advantage Oil & Gas, mentioned above, has estimated tax pools of $1.5 billion, but has eliminated its distribution and will be using them simply to shield future cash flows from corporate tax.

Meanwhile, Enerplus (NYSE: ERF) stressed its commitment to distributing "a significant portion" of cash flow to shareholders after converting to a corporation around January 1, 2011. Tax pools provide "shelter from cash taxes for two to three years beyond 2010," management said. Distributions will vary with cash flow, management added, but payments won't need to be adjusted "as a result of" converting to a tax-paying corporation.

Provident (NYSE: PVX) is still on the fence. No word on the distribution, but the company did say it has some $1.2 billion of tax pools available. Last year, management also asserted "it was in the best interest of unitholders that Provident remain structured as a cash-distributing, diversified energy enterprise." Meanwhile, monthly distributions have stayed steady.

Committed to Yield
In contrast to Enerplus and Provident, Pengrowth (NYSE: PGH; TSX: PGF.UN) has committed to using tax pools to maintain the current distribution. In its latest earnings report, the company said it plans to become a dividend-paying corporation in 2011 and has enough tax pools to keep the dividend at the same rate: "With the availability of approximately $2.9 billion worth of tax pools, the conversion to a corporate entity will occur with little or no impact to Pengrowth's ability to distribute the same level of cash to its shareholders." Analysts estimate the tax pools should cover dividends through 2013.

Vermilion (OTC: VETMF; TSX: VET.UN) has so far delivered one of the clearest statements of intentions. In its latest fourth-quarter earnings release, Vermillion confirmed that "effective September 1, 2010, Vermilion is planning to convert back to a corporate structure and intends to maintain its current business strategy following conversion, including the current level of distribution."

In my list below, I've identified a number of other businesses that appear committed to maintaining a high yield following a conversion from the trust model.

High-Yield Converts
Fortunately for us yield-loving investors, over a dozen trusts appear committed to keeping their dividend at the current rate and have already jumped through the hoop of converting to a corporation.

"Reliable Income" holding Bonterra Energy Corp. (OTC: BNEFF; TSX: BNE) is one of the higher-yielding among them. One of the more proactive trusts, it converted to a corporation in 2008. As clearly stated on its website and in press releases, management "intends to continue with a cash dividend policy similar to the distribution policy previously followed by the trust."

This oil and gas producer has generated rather remarkable total returns of +48% in just six months since we featured it as an International "High-Yield Security of the Month" in October. We expect the shares to continue to outperform as commodity prices strengthen. Equally important, the impressive performance to date bodes well for other trusts that plan to keep their distribution at the same level post-conversion.

As you would imagine, new announcements come out every day, but my list below is a snapshot of where things stand in trust land right now. In this table, I've identified higher-yielding Canadian trusts (or former trusts) that have kept their dividends intact or plan to do so under the new tax regime:
 
Company (Ticker) Price
($ CDN)
Yield Freq.
Paramount (OTC: PMGYF; TSX: PMT.UN) $4.80 12.5% M
Superior Plus (OTC: SUUIF; TSX: SPB) $14.20 11.4% M
Fort Chicago (OTC: FCGYF; TSX: FCE.UN) $10.80 9.3% M
Chemtrade (OTC: CGIFF; TSX: CHE.UN) $13.20 9.1% M
Pembina (OTC: PMBIF; TSX: PIF.UN) $17.26 9.0% M
Just Energy (OTC: JUSTF; TSX: JE.UN) $14.17 8.8% M
Colabor (OTC: COLFF; TSX: GCL) $12.35 8.7% Q
Northland Power (OTC: NPIFF; TSX: NPI.UN) $13.47 8.0% M
Extendicare ( OTC: EXETF; TSX: EXE.UN) $10.70 7.9% M
Inter Pipeline (OTC: IPPLF; TSX: IPL.UN) $11.71 7.7% M
Pengrowth (NYSE: PGH; TSX: PGF.UN) $11.60 7.2% M
Crescent Point (OTC: CSCTF; TSX: CPG) $38.88 7.1% M
Keyera (OTC: KEYUF; TSX: KEY.UN) $26.66 6.8% M
Wajax (OTC: WJXFF; TSX: WJX.UN) $26.90 6.7% M
Vermilion (OTC: VETMF; TSX: VET.UN) $35.33 6.5% M
Baytex (NYSE: BTE; TSX: BTE.UN) $35.06 6.2% M
Brookfield (OTC: BRPFF; TSX: BRC.UN) $21.30 6.1% M
Bonterra (OTC: BNEFF; TSX: BNE) $36.50 5.9% M
Ag Growth (OTC: AGGZF; TSX: AFN) $35.70 5.7% M

All of these companies carry compelling yields, but some of them may have the wherewithal to support their payouts better than others. Today, I've identified Keyera and Extendicare (profiled below) as strong companies which are positioned to offer a generous income stream in the years ahead.

While both stocks trade over-the-counter (OTC) in the U.S., you are generally better off buying the shares directly on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX). The Canadian-listed units are more liquid, making them easier to buy and sell. Most brokerages allow you to trade Toronto listings, but you may need to call your broker if online access to this exchange isn't available.

A Final Thought on the Canadian Dollar
In addition to strong yields, the Canadian equities listed above also offer a way to ride the Canadian dollar higher. The share price and income are denominated in Canadian dollars, so as the loonie (Canadian dollar) gains value against the greenback, your shares and dividends grow at exactly the same rate.

In total, the Canadian dollar has risen +21% over the past year. That means the income you receive from these Canadian trusts has also increased +21% and the value of the shares has appreciated by more than +21% as well, when translated into U.S. dollars.

Better yet, the loonie is expected to keep strengthening against the dollar. A much anticipated interest rate hike in July by the Bank of Canada, growing demand for the country's oil and gas exports, foreign takeover interest, and fears about sovereign credit defaults in countries that don't share Canada's coveted "AAA" credit rating are all factors that will drive the loonie beyond parity with the U.S. dollar by the summer, says the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (NYSE: CM).

Note: Like other foreign dividends, Canadian distributions are subject to a 15% withholding tax that is withheld by your broker before distributions are paid to unitholders. You can receive a tax credit for the withholding tax if the units are held in a taxable brokerage account. Once the trusts convert to corporations, if they are held in a retirement account, the shares may be exempt from withholding tax, according to the amended Canada-U.S. Income Tax Convention.

--------------------------
Today's Top Picks
--------------------------

Keyera Facilities (OTC: KEYUF; TSX: KEY.UN, C$26.66)
6.8% Yield

Snapshot: With interests in about 15 gas plants in Western Canada, Calgary-based Keyera is one of the largest natural gas processors in Canada. The company gathers, processes, stores, and transports natural gas, as well as natural gas liquids (NGL) and crude oil. These operations generate fee-based revenue based on volumes, mitigating the effects of commodity price swings.

Keyera also sells natural gas liquids like propane and butane to energy companies in Canada and the United States. This part of the business is exposed to fluctuations in commodity prices and currency exchange rates, but the company manages the risk through hedging activities.

Natural gas gathering and processing accounts for nearly 50% of earnings; processing, storage, and transport of natural gas liquids and crude oil contribute about 25%; and energy marketing (buying and selling of natural gas) makes up the balance.

Organized as an income trust in 2003, the fund plans to convert to a corporation by January 1, 2011.

 

Yield: Keyera has paid monthly distributions of C$0.15 per unit, or C$1.80 annually, since January 2009. That gives the trust a current yield of close to 7% (C$1.80/C$26.66). In December, the fund also paid a special distribution of C$0.45 per unit, consisting of about 50% units and 50% cash, providing a trailing yield of 8.4% (C$2.25/C$26.66).

Distributable cash flow in 2009 of C$260.0 million, or C$4.08 per unit, covered distributions of C$144.0 million, or C$2.25 per unit (which includes the special distribution), for a conservative payout ratio of just 55%.

Keyera (TSX: KEY.UN)

Annual Payment: C$1.80
Yield: 6.8%
Frequency: Monthly
Taxes: Suitable for taxable account
Dividend Reinvestment: Not available for U.S. residents

Management has consistently stated its intention to maintain the distribution after converting to a corporation, going so far as to say, "We believe we are positioned to set our corporate dividend at the same level as our current annual distribution of $1.80 per unit."

The entire 2009 distribution consisted of qualified dividend income taxable at the reduced dividend rate. As such, the fund is suitable for a taxable brokerage account. The company does have a dividend reinvestment plan, but U.S. residents are not eligible to participate. For more information, you can call the plan agent at 1-800-340-4905 or the company's investor relations at 403-205-7670.

Performance: Over the past three years, Keyera's operating revenue has climbed +30%, and diluted earnings per unit have rocketed from $0.24 to $2.29. In 2009, the company achieved record operating results in the face of a global slowdown.

Distributable cash flow was almost double that of the previous year and cash flow from operations of C$313 million nearly quadrupled. Strong demand for all three business services -- gas processing, natural gas liquids storage, and product marketing -- contributed to these results.

The company is well-capitalized, with long-term debt of C$258 million just 34% of unitholder equity of C$761 million at year-end 2009.

Outlook: Keyera has stable assets such as gas processing plants, which generate steady fee-based revenue. Growth comes primarily from expanding existing gathering pipelines and processing plants or acquiring new ones. This year, management plans to invest between $80-100 million of growth capital and has the financial flexibility for larger transactions if the opportunity arises.

Oil sands are a significant growth area for the company. Specifically, Keyera inked a long-term contract with Imperial Oil Resources Ventures Limited, a subsidiary of ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM), to transport and store byproducts from Imperial's Kearl oil sands project. The deal gives Keyera long-term fee-for-service revenues starting in late 2012, and the potential for other business opportunities.

Valuation: Trading at a P/E of around 15 times this year's estimated earnings of C$1.80 per unit, the units are trading at a slight discount to industry peers such as Pembina Pipeline (TSX: PIF.UN). Units are selling close to a record high of C$28.98 hit intra-day on February 17th, but show no sign of slowing down.

Action to Take --> Keyera units appear reasonably priced. Given the company's above-average monthly income stream, which is both tax-advantaged and relatively secure, it offers the conservative income investor a great way to diversify out of dollar-denominated assets. Risk Meter: Low
 


Extendicare REIT (OTC: EXETF; TSX: EXE.UN, C$10.70) 
7.9% Yield

Snapshot: Headquartered in Markham, Ontario, Extendicare is one of the largest operators of long-term and acute care facilities for seniors in North America. It manages a network of 176 nursing homes, retirement centers, and outpatient clinics. The trust also provides rehabilitation therapy and home healthcare services. Revenues are generated from government-funded fee-based services in both the U.S. and Canada. About 70% of revenue is from the U.S. and the balance from Canada.

Although Extendicare is a real estate investment trust, not an income trust, it was not exempt from the Canadian government's new tax rules for trusts. In fact, because of some quirks to these tax rules, Extendicare started paying taxes on income earned as early as January 1, 2007. That means it's business as usual for this trust come 2011 -- the new tax rules should trigger no changes to either the company's strategic direction or distribution policy. Another bonus: More than half of Extendicare's income is generated in the U.S. and is therefore unaffected by the Canada's new tax rules.
 

Yield: The REIT has paid C$0.07 per unit every month since January 2009, for an annual yield of nearly 8% at today's unit price (C$0.84/C$10.70). Like other REITs, the distribution is taxable as ordinary income for U.S. investors, making the trust suitable for a tax-deferred account.

Adjusted funds from continuing operations of C$141.3 million (C$1.936 per basic unit) in 2009 amply covered distributions of C$61.3 million(C$0.84 per unit) for a very attractive 43% payout ratio.

Extendicare (TSX: EXE.UN)

Annual Payment: C$0.84
Yield:
7.9%
Frequency:
Monthly
Taxes:
Suitable for tax-deferred account
Dividend Reinvestment:
Not available for U.S. residents

Excluding the impact of one-time tax items, the payout ratio was a still conservative 59%, leaving room for further distribution growth. Management clearly stated in its latest fourth-quarter and annual presentation that "current monthly distributions [are] appropriate and sustainable."

Extendicare's dividend reinvestment plan is not available to U.S. residents. For more information, you can call the transfer agent at 1-800-564-6253 or Extendicare's investor relations at 905-470-5534.

Performance: Extendicare is in turnaround mode. Revenues rose +9% last year, partly driven by government-regulated funding increases in both the U.S. and Canada. Rates for managed care and Medicare Part A, which contribute to a large portion of Extendicare's U.S. revenues, rose an average of +7% last year. Meanwhile, earnings before interest, taxes, and depreciation (EBITDA) grew +32% on better cost controls. After accounting for unfavorable currency translation -- a strong Canadian dollar weighs on the company's U.S. revenue sources -- EBITDA rose +25%.

The balance sheet is also strengthening, with cash on hand of C$134 million at year-end 2009. The company carries a fairly heavy debt load of C$1.2 billion at year-end 2009. However, leverage (debt to EBITDA) improved to 4.7 times, from 6.7 times at the end of 2008. Moreover, a successful equity issue this February raised net proceeds of $82.8 million that will be used to repay debt and develop existing properties.

Outlook: Despite the recent passage of the healthcare reform bill in the United States, we're still in a transition stage that could take some time to play out. Many of the key points of the bill won't go into effect until 2014. Still, the bill will help extend benefits to 32 million uninsured Americans and should have an overall positive effect on the nursing home operator by increasing occupancy rates. Canadian operations, which also benefited from funding increases last year, are expected to keep growing as tighter regulations limit competition.

Meanwhile, management is growing the business by investing in new and existing centers across North America. In 2009, the company built a new 100-bed nursing center in Michigan and another one in Wisconsin, along with a 60-unit assisted living facility, which should boost revenues. Three more projects are underway in Alberta -- a 280-bed continuing care center, a 140-bed assisted living center, and 180-bed nursing center. The company also expects to complete construction of two new 180-bed and 256-bed nursing centers in Ontario by the end of 2012.

About 75% of the cost of these two projects will be financed through the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation, and the company will receive government funding of an additional $2 million annually.

Valuation: Like Keyera described above, Extendicare's units are trading near their 52-week highs, but keep breaking through to higher levels. With a P/E of just 10 times trailing earnings of C$1.03, and a yield well above the 5-year historical average of 5.4%, the units are attractively valued.

Action to Take --> Given the government-funded source of revenues, I consider EXE.UN a relatively stable high-income play with the potential for distribution growth. For an investor looking for a steady monthly income stream and moderate capital gains potential, Extendicare is worth considering.
Risk Meter: Low




Carla Pasternak, Director of Income Research

High-Yield Investing, High-Yield International, and Dividend Opportunities


All security prices are listed as of the close of trading on Friday, March 26, 2010.
 

Why I Sent You this Canadian Trust Article From Carla

I sent you Carla's article on Canadian trusts above for two reasons:

     1) I think it's important for everyone who owns these trusts to keep abreast of their changing status.

     2) I myself saw an opportunity to give you a valuable taste of the in-depth foreign coverage Carla delivers every month in her sister advisory High-Yield International.

High-Yield International is the only service devoted exclusively to helping you make money with high-yielding foreign securities.

Nowhere will you find a more thorough ranking of your foreign income-investment options than in this monthly investment bulletin.

I'd like to send you the next issue of High-Yield International so you can see for yourself how easy it is to profit from high-yielding securities around the world. For example, Carla just looked into an Israeli stock in her February issue paying 20.5%.

With a $100,000 investment, you could pocket $20,500 per year in dividends alone in this foreign cash cow -- while diversifying your portfolio.

Since you're new to StreetAuthority, I've created an offer just for you: $247 per year. This price is only for StreetAuthority subscribers... and it's only available for a short time.

You'll also get a series of free bonus reports crammed with tips and strategies on foreign income investing... plus Carla's 36 specific high-yielding securities suited to weather all economic climates.

Don't place your entire financial future on the back of U.S. stocks... a market yielding 1.9% that could take years to get back to break even -- not when you can lock in solid foreign plays yielding up to 14.0% right out of the gate in dividends alone.

Please take a look here at Carla's remarkable worldwide hunt for income.

Sincerely,


Lou Betancourt, Publisher


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