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Canadian Trusts: What to Do Now |
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By Carla Pasternak |
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"Canada, some may be surprised to learn, is America's largest
oil supplier." So says NBC newscaster Tom Brokaw in an
inspiring six-minute clip that aired in February before the
opening of the Olympics in Vancouver, British Columbia.
In
all, the United States imports about 2 million barrels per day
from its neighbor.
Much of that oil comes from
high-yielding energy trusts, like Penn West or Enerplus, which
are based right here in my home city of Calgary, Alberta.
The trust model makes sense for Canadian energy producers with
mature reserves that generate predictable cash flow. The oil and
natural gas reserves offer up plenty of cash to pay investors.
Meanwhile, trust rules mean that the business has to pass along
the bulk of cash flow to investors. The result is high yields
that attract shareholders and boost the share price.
It's a win-win: The trust enjoys high-priced equity capital to
finance growth, and investors receive superior income taxable at
the reduced dividend rate in the U.S. (Canadian investors also
had it good; they could defer taxes by placing trust units in a
registered retirement savings account.)
But the party was too good to last. In nine months, these trusts
will no longer exist in their current form. Fearing the loss of
billions of dollars in tax revenue, the Canadian government
announced on October 31st, 2006 that trusts would lose their
tax-favored status starting on January 1, 2011. The proposal was
known here in Calgary as the "Halloween Massacre," and the
Canadian "Oil Patch" lobbied hard to beat it down, but was
unsuccessful.
Fearing the end of double-digit yields and tax-advantaged
income, investors on both sides of the border dumped their units
in droves. Trusts lost over -30% of their value in the weeks
following Prime Minister Harper's initial proposal, and the
units (shares are known as "units" in trust lingo) were pummeled
even more during the recession.
What's Next for Canadian Income Trusts?
The uncertainty of what will happen next has weighed on trusts.
Most will convert over to ordinary corporations, but which ones?
Which will get taken over? Which will cut their payouts to
conserve cash and focus on production growth? Which will keep
paying dividends at the same rate?
But now the clouds are starting to clear. According to Canadian
investment dealer RBC Dominion, 72 income trusts have been
acquired at an average premium of +14% above their trading
price. Another 40 have converted to dividend-paying
corporations.
A recent survey by investor relations firm BarnesMcInerney and
others showed that 84% of the 165 Canadian income trust CEOs
polled expect to cut cash distributions when they convert trusts
into traditional corporations. But all is not doom and gloom.
Yes, some are cutting payments, but others are saying they will
maintain the current rate if they have the cash flow.
So in a search for what I call "high-yield keepers," I've
conducted my own study. At the conclusion of today's article,
I've identified about 20 Canadian income trusts and former
trusts with yields of around 6% or more that are committed to
keeping distributions at current levels.
But there are plenty of very popular trusts that investors have
questions about. That's why I've researched the current plans
for some of Canada's most revered income trusts.
To see where some of the major players are positioned for the
future, read on...
Growth Mode For Some
One avenue available to trusts it to convert to a corporation
and then shun the focus on income and instead look to grow
production.
While a number of trusts have done this, surprisingly few have
entirely eliminated the dividend as they moved from an income
model to an exclusive growth mode. But at least three once
high-yielding trusts have opted to do so.
For example,
Advantage Oil & Gas (NYSE: AAV) converted to
a "growth-oriented corporation" in July 2009 and paid its last
monthly distribution of $0.04 per unit in March, down from $0.08
per unit the month before. Going forward, management said it
"does not anticipate paying dividends in the immediate future."
Instead, it will use the cash flow to reduce debt and focus on
developing its natural gas assets.
Bellatrix Exploration (OTC: BLLXF; TSX: BXE) and
Enterra Energy Trust (NYSE: ENT) are quitting distributions
to focus more on being growth-oriented producers.
More companies, however, are cutting rather than eliminating
their dividends, as they simply try to live within their means
and provide sustainable dividends going forward.
Gas producer
Trilogy Energy (OTC: TETFF; TSX: TET)
completed its conversion this February after saying it would cut
its monthly dividend -30% to C$0.035 per share for a current
yield of around 5%. Media publisher
Yellow Pages (OTC: YLWPF;
TSX: YLO.UN) said in February it will cut the monthly
dividend by -19% to C$0.054 per unit when it converts later this
year, providing a still juicy yield of over 10% at today's
price.
Numerous other trusts are repeating the same mantra -- they
won't stop paying distributions, but future distributions will
likely be lower. This includes companies with plans to focus
more on growth or simply trying to live within their means:
Innergex Power Income Fund
(OTC: INRGF; TSX: IEF.UN) |
A&W Revenue Royalties Trust
(OTC: AWRRF; TSX: AW.UN) |
Daylight Resources
(OTC: DAYYF; TSX: DAY.UN) |
Canadian Oil Sands
(OTC: COSWF; TSX: COS.UN) |
Peyto Energy
(OTC: PEYUF; TSX: PEY.UN) |
Zargon Energy
(OTC: ZARFF; TSX: ZAR.UN) |
Arc Energy
(OTC: AETUF; TSX: AET.UN) |
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Sitting on the
Fence
Some of the more popular trusts with U.S. investors (because
they trade on the New York Stock Exchange) are saying they will
tell us more in the months ahead.
Penn West (NYSE: PWE) CEO William Andrews said in the
latest earnings report he will keep the monthly distribution
steady at least for the current quarter, but won't confirm the
rate will stay the same post-conversion until first-quarter
results come out in May. The distribution outlook is not looking
promising, given that in years past the trust was heavily
focused just on payments. "As a corporation, Penn West will
focus on total shareholder return. This will consist of both
growth and income from dividends," Andrews stressed.
Some trusts are saying they have enough tax pools to shelter
their cash flow from income taxes for several years after
December 31, 2010. These pools are accumulated business losses
that can be deducted from income in future years, thereby
sheltering cash from future taxes. As such, tax pools can be
extremely advantageous, even more so now that trusts have been
prohibited by the government from gaining additional tax pools
by simply acquiring any company with large business losses.
Even with tax pools, however, management must still decide
whether to use the tax-advantaged cash to grow the company or
provide big payouts to investors. For example, Advantage Oil &
Gas, mentioned above, has estimated tax pools of $1.5 billion,
but has eliminated its distribution and will be using them
simply to shield future cash flows from corporate tax.
Meanwhile,
Enerplus (NYSE: ERF) stressed its commitment
to distributing "a significant portion" of cash flow to
shareholders after converting to a corporation around January 1,
2011. Tax pools provide "shelter from cash taxes for two to
three years beyond 2010," management said. Distributions will
vary with cash flow, management added, but payments won't need
to be adjusted "as a result of" converting to a tax-paying
corporation.
Provident (NYSE: PVX) is still on the fence. No word on
the distribution, but the company did say it has some $1.2
billion of tax pools available. Last year, management also
asserted "it was in the best interest of unitholders that
Provident remain structured as a cash-distributing, diversified
energy enterprise." Meanwhile, monthly distributions have stayed
steady.
Committed to Yield
In contrast to Enerplus and Provident,
Pengrowth (NYSE: PGH;
TSX: PGF.UN) has committed to using tax pools to maintain
the current distribution. In its latest earnings report, the
company said it plans to become a dividend-paying corporation in
2011 and has enough tax pools to keep the dividend at the same
rate: "With the availability of approximately $2.9 billion worth
of tax pools, the conversion to a corporate entity will occur
with little or no impact to Pengrowth's ability to distribute
the same level of cash to its shareholders." Analysts estimate
the tax pools should cover dividends through 2013.
Vermilion (OTC: VETMF; TSX: VET.UN) has so far delivered
one of the clearest statements of intentions. In its latest
fourth-quarter earnings release, Vermillion confirmed that
"effective September 1, 2010, Vermilion is planning to convert
back to a corporate structure and intends to maintain its
current business strategy following conversion, including the
current level of distribution."
In my list below, I've identified a number of other businesses
that appear committed to maintaining a high yield following a
conversion from the trust model.
High-Yield Converts
Fortunately for us yield-loving investors, over a dozen trusts
appear committed to keeping their dividend at the current rate
and have already jumped through the hoop of converting to a
corporation.
"Reliable Income" holding
Bonterra Energy Corp. (OTC: BNEFF;
TSX: BNE) is one of the higher-yielding among them. One of
the more proactive trusts, it converted to a corporation in
2008. As clearly stated on its website and in press releases,
management "intends to continue with a cash dividend policy
similar to the distribution policy previously followed by the
trust."
This oil and gas producer has generated rather remarkable total
returns of +48% in just six months since we featured it as an
International "High-Yield Security of the Month" in October. We
expect the shares to continue to outperform as commodity prices
strengthen. Equally important, the impressive performance to
date bodes well for other trusts that plan to keep their
distribution at the same level post-conversion.
As you would imagine, new announcements come out every day, but
my list below is a snapshot of where things stand in trust land
right now. In this table, I've identified higher-yielding
Canadian trusts (or former trusts) that have kept their
dividends intact or plan to do so under the new tax regime:
|
Company
(Ticker) |
Price
($ CDN) |
Yield |
Freq. |
|
Paramount (OTC: PMGYF; TSX:
PMT.UN) |
$4.80 |
12.5% |
M |
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Superior Plus (OTC: SUUIF;
TSX: SPB) |
$14.20 |
11.4% |
M |
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Fort Chicago (OTC: FCGYF;
TSX: FCE.UN) |
$10.80 |
9.3% |
M |
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Chemtrade (OTC: CGIFF; TSX:
CHE.UN) |
$13.20 |
9.1% |
M |
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Pembina (OTC: PMBIF; TSX:
PIF.UN) |
$17.26 |
9.0% |
M |
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Just Energy (OTC: JUSTF; TSX:
JE.UN) |
$14.17 |
8.8% |
M |
|
Colabor (OTC: COLFF; TSX:
GCL) |
$12.35 |
8.7% |
Q |
|
Northland Power (OTC:
NPIFF; TSX: NPI.UN) |
$13.47 |
8.0% |
M |
|
Extendicare ( OTC: EXETF;
TSX: EXE.UN) |
$10.70 |
7.9% |
M |
|
Inter Pipeline (OTC: IPPLF;
TSX: IPL.UN) |
$11.71 |
7.7% |
M |
|
Pengrowth (NYSE: PGH; TSX:
PGF.UN) |
$11.60 |
7.2% |
M |
|
Crescent Point (OTC: CSCTF;
TSX: CPG) |
$38.88 |
7.1% |
M |
|
Keyera (OTC: KEYUF; TSX:
KEY.UN) |
$26.66 |
6.8% |
M |
|
Wajax (OTC: WJXFF; TSX:
WJX.UN) |
$26.90 |
6.7% |
M |
|
Vermilion (OTC: VETMF; TSX:
VET.UN) |
$35.33 |
6.5% |
M |
|
Baytex (NYSE: BTE; TSX:
BTE.UN) |
$35.06 |
6.2% |
M |
|
Brookfield (OTC: BRPFF;
TSX: BRC.UN) |
$21.30 |
6.1% |
M |
|
Bonterra (OTC: BNEFF; TSX:
BNE) |
$36.50 |
5.9% |
M |
|
Ag Growth (OTC: AGGZF; TSX:
AFN) |
$35.70 |
5.7% |
M |
All
of these companies carry compelling yields, but some of them may
have the wherewithal to support their payouts better than
others. Today, I've identified Keyera and Extendicare (profiled
below) as strong companies which are positioned to offer a
generous income stream in the years ahead.
While both stocks trade over-the-counter (OTC) in the U.S., you
are generally better off buying the shares directly on the
Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX). The Canadian-listed units are more
liquid, making them easier to buy and sell. Most brokerages
allow you to trade Toronto listings, but you may need to call
your broker if online access to this exchange isn't available.
A Final Thought on the Canadian
Dollar
In addition to strong yields, the Canadian equities listed above
also offer a way to ride the Canadian dollar higher. The share
price and income are denominated in Canadian dollars, so as the
loonie (Canadian dollar) gains value against the greenback, your
shares and dividends grow at exactly the same rate.
In total, the Canadian dollar has risen +21% over the past year.
That means the income you receive from these Canadian trusts has
also increased +21% and the value of the shares has appreciated
by more than +21% as well, when translated into U.S. dollars.
Better yet, the loonie is expected to keep strengthening against
the dollar. A much anticipated interest rate hike in July by the
Bank of Canada, growing demand for the country's oil and gas
exports, foreign takeover interest, and fears about sovereign
credit defaults in countries that don't share Canada's coveted
"AAA" credit rating are all factors that will drive the loonie
beyond parity with the U.S. dollar by the summer, says the
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (NYSE: CM).
Note: Like other foreign dividends, Canadian
distributions are subject to a 15% withholding tax that is
withheld by your broker before distributions are paid to
unitholders. You can receive a tax credit for the withholding
tax if the units are held in a taxable brokerage account. Once
the trusts convert to corporations, if they are held in a
retirement account, the shares may be exempt from withholding
tax, according to the amended Canada-U.S. Income Tax Convention.
--------------------------
Today's Top Picks
--------------------------
Keyera Facilities (OTC: KEYUF;
TSX: KEY.UN, C$26.66)
6.8% Yield
Snapshot: With
interests in about 15 gas plants in Western Canada,
Calgary-based Keyera is one of the largest natural gas
processors in Canada. The company gathers, processes, stores,
and transports natural gas, as well as natural gas liquids (NGL)
and crude oil. These operations generate fee-based revenue based
on volumes, mitigating the effects of commodity price swings.
Keyera also sells natural gas liquids like propane and butane to
energy companies in Canada and the United States. This part of
the business is exposed to fluctuations in commodity prices and
currency exchange rates, but the company manages the risk
through hedging activities.
Natural gas gathering and processing accounts for nearly 50% of
earnings; processing, storage, and transport of natural gas
liquids and crude oil contribute about 25%; and energy marketing
(buying and selling of natural gas) makes up the balance.
Organized as an income trust in 2003, the fund plans to convert
to a corporation by January 1, 2011.
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Yield: Keyera has paid monthly distributions
of C$0.15 per unit, or C$1.80 annually, since January 2009.
That gives the trust a current yield of close to 7%
(C$1.80/C$26.66). In December, the fund also paid a special
distribution of C$0.45 per unit, consisting of about 50%
units and 50% cash, providing a trailing yield of 8.4%
(C$2.25/C$26.66).
Distributable cash flow in 2009 of C$260.0 million, or
C$4.08 per unit, covered distributions of C$144.0 million,
or C$2.25 per unit (which includes the special
distribution), for a conservative payout ratio of just 55%.
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Keyera (TSX: KEY.UN) |
Annual Payment:
C$1.80
Yield: 6.8%
Frequency: Monthly
Taxes: Suitable for taxable account
Dividend Reinvestment: Not available for U.S.
residents |
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Management has consistently stated its intention to maintain
the distribution after converting to a corporation, going so
far as to say, "We believe we are positioned to set our
corporate dividend at the same level as our current annual
distribution of $1.80 per unit."
The entire 2009 distribution consisted of qualified dividend
income taxable at the reduced dividend rate. As such, the
fund is suitable for a taxable brokerage account. The
company does have a dividend reinvestment plan, but U.S.
residents are not eligible to participate. For more
information, you can call the plan agent at 1-800-340-4905
or the company's investor relations at 403-205-7670.
Performance: Over the past three years,
Keyera's operating revenue has climbed +30%, and diluted
earnings per unit have rocketed from $0.24 to $2.29. In
2009, the company achieved record operating results in the
face of a global slowdown.
Distributable cash flow was almost double that of the
previous year and cash flow from operations of C$313 million
nearly quadrupled. Strong demand for all three business
services -- gas processing, natural gas liquids storage, and
product marketing -- contributed to these results.
The company is well-capitalized, with long-term debt of
C$258 million just 34% of unitholder equity of C$761 million
at year-end 2009.
Outlook: Keyera has stable assets such as gas
processing plants, which generate steady fee-based revenue.
Growth comes primarily from expanding existing gathering
pipelines and processing plants or acquiring new ones. This
year, management plans to invest between $80-100 million of
growth capital and has the financial flexibility for larger
transactions if the opportunity arises.
Oil sands are a significant growth area for the company.
Specifically, Keyera inked a long-term contract with
Imperial Oil Resources Ventures Limited, a subsidiary of
ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM), to transport and store byproducts
from Imperial's Kearl oil sands project. The deal gives
Keyera long-term fee-for-service revenues starting in late
2012, and the potential for other business opportunities.
Valuation: Trading at a P/E of around 15 times
this year's estimated earnings of C$1.80 per unit, the units
are trading at a slight discount to industry peers such as
Pembina Pipeline (TSX: PIF.UN). Units are selling close to a
record high of C$28.98 hit intra-day on February 17th, but
show no sign of slowing down.
Action to Take -->
Keyera units appear reasonably priced. Given the company's
above-average monthly income stream, which is both
tax-advantaged and relatively secure, it offers the
conservative income investor a great way to diversify out of
dollar-denominated assets.
Risk
Meter:
Low
Extendicare REIT (OTC:
EXETF; TSX: EXE.UN, C$10.70)
7.9%
Yield
Snapshot:
Headquartered in Markham, Ontario, Extendicare is one of the
largest operators of long-term and acute care facilities for
seniors in North America. It manages a network of 176 nursing
homes, retirement centers, and outpatient clinics. The trust
also provides rehabilitation therapy and home healthcare
services. Revenues are generated from government-funded
fee-based services in both the U.S. and Canada. About 70% of
revenue is from the U.S. and the balance from Canada.
Although Extendicare is a real estate investment trust, not an
income trust, it was not exempt from the Canadian government's
new tax rules for trusts. In fact, because of some quirks to
these tax rules, Extendicare started paying taxes on income
earned as early as January 1, 2007. That means it's business as
usual for this trust come 2011 -- the new tax rules should
trigger no changes to either the company's strategic direction
or distribution policy. Another bonus: More than half of
Extendicare's income is generated in the U.S. and is therefore
unaffected by the Canada's new tax rules.
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Yield: The REIT has paid C$0.07 per unit every
month since January 2009, for an annual yield of nearly 8%
at today's unit price (C$0.84/C$10.70). Like other REITs,
the distribution is taxable as ordinary income for U.S.
investors, making the trust suitable for a tax-deferred
account.
Adjusted funds from continuing operations of C$141.3 million
(C$1.936 per basic unit) in 2009 amply covered distributions
of C$61.3 million(C$0.84 per unit) for a very attractive 43%
payout ratio. |
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Extendicare (TSX: EXE.UN) |
Annual Payment:
C$0.84
Yield:
7.9%
Frequency:
Monthly
Taxes:
Suitable for tax-deferred account
Dividend Reinvestment:
Not available for U.S.
residents |
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Excluding the impact of
one-time tax items, the payout ratio was a still conservative
59%, leaving room for further distribution growth. Management
clearly stated in its latest fourth-quarter and annual
presentation that "current monthly distributions [are]
appropriate and sustainable."
Extendicare's dividend reinvestment plan is not available to
U.S. residents. For more information, you can call the transfer
agent at 1-800-564-6253 or Extendicare's investor relations at
905-470-5534.
Performance: Extendicare is in turnaround mode.
Revenues rose +9% last year, partly driven by
government-regulated funding increases in both the U.S. and
Canada. Rates for managed care and Medicare Part A, which
contribute to a large portion of Extendicare's U.S. revenues,
rose an average of +7% last year. Meanwhile, earnings before
interest, taxes, and depreciation (EBITDA)
grew +32% on better cost controls. After accounting for
unfavorable currency translation -- a strong Canadian dollar
weighs on the company's U.S. revenue sources -- EBITDA rose
+25%.
The balance sheet is also strengthening, with cash on hand of
C$134 million at year-end 2009. The company carries a fairly
heavy debt load of C$1.2 billion at year-end 2009. However,
leverage (debt to EBITDA) improved to 4.7 times, from 6.7 times
at the end of 2008. Moreover, a successful equity issue this
February raised net proceeds of $82.8 million that will be used
to repay debt and develop existing properties.
Outlook: Despite the recent passage of the
healthcare reform bill in the United States, we're still in a
transition stage that could take some time to play out. Many of
the key points of the bill won't go into effect until 2014.
Still, the bill will help extend benefits to 32 million
uninsured Americans and should have an overall positive effect
on the nursing home operator by increasing occupancy rates.
Canadian operations, which also benefited from funding increases
last year, are expected to keep growing as tighter regulations
limit competition.
Meanwhile, management is growing the business by investing in
new and existing centers across North America. In 2009, the
company built a new 100-bed nursing center in Michigan and
another one in Wisconsin, along with a 60-unit assisted living
facility, which should boost revenues. Three more projects are
underway in Alberta -- a 280-bed continuing care center, a
140-bed assisted living center, and 180-bed nursing center. The
company also expects to complete construction of two new 180-bed
and 256-bed nursing centers in Ontario by the end of 2012.
About 75% of the cost of these two projects will be financed
through the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation, and the
company will receive government funding of an additional $2
million annually.
Valuation: Like Keyera described above,
Extendicare's units are trading near their 52-week highs, but
keep breaking through to higher levels. With a P/E of just 10
times trailing earnings of C$1.03, and a yield well above the
5-year historical average of 5.4%, the units are attractively
valued.
Action to Take --> Given the
government-funded source of revenues, I consider EXE.UN a
relatively stable high-income play with the potential for
distribution growth. For an investor looking for a steady
monthly income stream and moderate capital gains potential,
Extendicare is worth considering.
Risk
Meter:
Low


Carla Pasternak, Director of Income Research
High-Yield Investing,
High-Yield International, and Dividend Opportunities
All security prices are listed as of the close of trading on
Friday, March 26, 2010.
Why I Sent You this Canadian Trust
Article From Carla
I sent you Carla's article on Canadian trusts above for two reasons:
1) I think it's important for everyone who owns these
trusts to keep abreast of their changing status.
2) I myself saw an opportunity to give you a valuable
taste of the in-depth foreign coverage Carla delivers every month in
her sister advisory
High-Yield International.
High-Yield International is the only service devoted
exclusively to helping you make money with high-yielding foreign
securities.
Nowhere will you find a more thorough ranking of your foreign
income-investment options than in this monthly investment bulletin.
I'd like to send you the next issue of
High-Yield International
so you can see for yourself how easy it is to profit from
high-yielding securities around the world. For example, Carla just
looked into an Israeli stock in her February issue paying 20.5%.
With a $100,000 investment, you could pocket $20,500 per year in
dividends alone in this foreign cash cow -- while diversifying your
portfolio.
Since you're new to StreetAuthority, I've created an offer just for you:
$247 per year. This price is only for StreetAuthority subscribers...
and it's only available for a short time.
You'll also get a series of free bonus reports crammed with tips and
strategies on foreign income investing... plus Carla's 36 specific
high-yielding securities suited to weather all economic climates.
Don't place your entire financial future on the back of U.S.
stocks... a market yielding 1.9% that could take years to get back
to break even -- not when you can lock in solid foreign plays
yielding up to 14.0% right out of the gate in dividends alone.
Please
take a look here at Carla's remarkable worldwide hunt for
income.
Sincerely,

Lou Betancourt, Publisher |
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